Motivational Disability
Professional forecasters are always attuned to possible emotional situations. This time of football season offers more possibilities than usual, like a team from a bad game looking to bounce back, or college football rivalry games and NFL divisional games. Texas and Texas A&M play this weekend and I remember a year ago when No. 2 Texas was a 27-point favorite over the Aggies.
However, A&M coach Dennis Franchione did the unexpected, going with a Wishbone and running straight for the Longhorns. They ran extremely well and nearly pulled off the upset, eventually losing but covering easily. The Aggies were excited to not only take on the undefeated No. 2 team in the nation, but also one of their state rivals. They played with extra emotion that day.
You can even find players and coaches talking about emotions the week before a game. I wore this last week when North Carolina football rivals UNC and NC State met. It was a classic case of a late-season game with one team on the decline and another playing with fire. NC State under Chuck Amato has gone from a 10-win season in 2002 to a 3-7 mark last week. They were a typical example of a team that has packed up the season and here they were FAVORITE against a conference and state rival. Remember that many bad teams that don’t bowl may focus on a late-season rivalry game as their bowl.
Look at some of the facts that go into that game: NC State has lost EVERY road game played this year by 6 points or more. They haven’t scored more than 24 points in any game this season. They have been exceeded 8 of the last 9 weeks. NC State has been held to fewer than 225 passing yards in all but one game all season. The Wolfpack does not deserve to be favored on the road to anyone. Under Amato NC State is 1-11 against the spread as a favorite!
Say what you want about the Tar Heel talent, they continue to play hardcore week after week. Outgoing head coach John Bunting should get another big team effort from him this week in their last home game. Bunting is 4-1 against Amato, including upsets of the last two years as a double-digit underdog. The dog is 10-4 ATS in this series and the Tar Heels have won 10 of 13 games outright. I expected a supreme effort from the home team and once again the Heels won the game like dogs.
This can also happen in the NFL, especially with divisional games. All NFL head coaches stress to their players how important division games are, even if they don’t publicly admit it. I had San Francisco on Sunday against NFC West rival Seattle. Seattle was coming off an emotional win over the Rams with a last-second field goal, sweeping the Rams giving Seattle a two-game divisional cushion. Also, they still had backup quarterback Seneca Wallace playing and RB Shaun Alexander was returning after a long layoff. You can’t expect players like that to be fit in the middle of the season and Alexander wasn’t a factor (37 runs on 17 carries).
Seattle has been great in recent years at home, but very different away from home. They struggled to beat a bad Detroit team 9-6. They were crushed in Chicago 37-6, beat St Louis 30-28 on a last-second field goal and lost at Kansas City 35-28. So in four away games they have not beaten an opponent by more than 3 points. San Fran was on a 2 game win streak as a DOG each time, and the defense has allowed 3, 13 and 14 points in the last three games. Seattle’s defense has been poor most of the season. These teams are much more equal than the line suggests.
They had a season-high 416 yards. The 49ers scored their 17th offensive touchdown of the season against Seattle. San Francisco scored 17 offensive touchdowns all of last year. “It’s amazing when you’re able to win, the confidence you can generate,” defensive team captain Bryant Young said. “Wow, what a win.” And what an easy cover!